France will be the European champion - this is the conclusion made by researchers from the Universities of Innsbruck and Ghent, the Technical Universities of Dortmund and Munich, and Molde University of Applied Sciences with the support of a machine learning model. England and Spain also have good chances of winning the title.
The calculation is based on four sources of information. A statistical model for the performance of each team based on all international matches played in the past eight years, another statistical model for the performance of the teams based on the betting rates of 19 international bookmakers, additional information about the teams - such as market value, population size or gross domestic product -, as well as detailed ratings of the individual players and their individual performance. A machine learning model brought the four sources together and optimized them step by step. The researchers previously trained the model with historical data.
Incidentally, according to the forecast, Germany's 10.1 percent probability of becoming European champion is significantly lower than that of the favorites.